Liling mustard (002507) company dynamic review: channel inventory returns to benign attention to performance inflection point

Many measures have been taken to speed up destocking. At present, the stock is in a healthy state.

In 19 years, the company’s channel inventory was under pressure, especially in April when it entered the peak period of inventory. The company actively took measures to destock.

Expand the growth rate from Q2 to the cost of channels and terminals, while strengthening channel sinking; increase the frequency of rebates, switch from quarterly to monthly rebates, and relax credit lines, and adopt rolling credit sales policies for some dealers in some markets to improveThe dealer’s enthusiasm for taking goods; performance. In Q3, the company strengthened the inventory management 西安耍耍网 of the dealers, delivered goods on demand, and ensured that the sales were healthy by controlling the goods.

  At present, the company’s channel inventory is at a normal level, and the effect of destocking gradually appears.

Q3’s focus is still on destocking, coupled with the macroeconomic downturn and weak terminal demand. It is expected that Q3’s revenue probability is basically flat with the same period last year.

  Q3 gross profit margin is expected to rise steadily, supplemented by selling expenses.

The overall gross profit margin for the second quarter of 19 was 58.

9%, the same increase of 0.

4pct, reducing the effect of early price increases and downgrades on gross margin and positive contribution in the second quarter, but the increase in fixed costs such as depreciation and amortization partially offset the price increase effect; but despite the 19The annual low is about 10%, but most of the raw materials used in Q2 were purchased in 18 years, so the contribution of falling raw material prices to Q2’s gross profit margin has not yet been reflected; while Q3 uses 19-year-old cabbage heads, the gross profit margin is likely to rise steadily.
The pace of Q3 company’s expense expenditure on the channel has improved compared to Q2. Considering the increase in sales staff and the “sports supplement” brand promotion activities, the sales expense rate is expected to be flat or slightly increased compared to the same period last year.

  Entering the operating adjustment period in 19 years, channel sinking and category promotion are expected to become a breakthrough.

After the price increase and cost dividends in 2018, the company continued to maintain a high level of severe growth and coupled with weak terminal demand, it entered an operating adjustment period in 19 years, mainly in terms of channels and categories.

1) Channel sinking: sinking the county-level market, simultaneously performing office fission, and strengthening the management and service of dealers; in first-tier cities, the company expands the catering channel by developing take-out platforms, developing the combination of mustard and restaurant layout, etc.As well as group purchases, new retail, etc., the main advantages of second-tier cities are supporting large businesses.

  2) Independent promotion of categories: The company’s mustard products have entered the era of stocks, and it is difficult to break through the explosive growth. In the future, it will depend on category expansion to achieve incremental performance.

The Wujiang brand of radishes, pickles, and meals will be launched this year to pave the way for the release of added kimchi capacity. At the same time, key products such as crispy mustard, crispy radish, and meals will be promoted independently. The supermarket will gradually shift to circulation and intensify the categorySinking.

  Earnings forecasts and investment advice.

After years of operation, the company has built channels and raw material moats, has industry pricing power, and the trend of rising volume and price is expected to continue.

We expect revenue growth rates to be 10 in 19-21.

7% / 13.

6% / 15.

3%, net profit growth rate was 10.

4% / 15.

0% / 16.

5%, EPS is 0.

93/1.

06/1.

24 yuan, corresponding PE is 25/22 / 19X.

1H19 company performance entered an adjustment period, it is recommended to pay attention to the inflection point of performance.

  Risk warning: the growth rate of new products is declining, and the expansion of kimchi category is limited; the growth of first- and second-tier cities is weak, and the channel sinking effect is not significant;