Alcoholic Beverage (000799): Volume and price go up, structure improvement costs are high
The company has achieved revenue of 11 in 18 years.8.7 billion yuan, an increase of 35.13%; net profit after deduction for non-returning mothers1.9.5 billion yuan, an increase of 28.71%.Basic EPS0.69 yuan / share, 1 for 10 shares.5 yuan.Revenue in the fourth quarter alone4.2.7 billion, an annual increase of 30.57%; net profit after deduction is 0.52 ppm, a decrease of 14 per year.79%. Core point of view The product volume and price have both risen and the structure has improved.By quarter, the company’s Q1, Q2, Q3 and Q4 revenues increased by 46 respectively.1%, 36.6%, 30.8%, 30.6%, the fastest expected growth rate in the fourth quarter is related to the high base in the same period, increased competition in the industry, destocking and other factors.In terms of products, 18 years of internal reference, alcoholics, and Xiangquan have achieved income2.4.4 billion (+38.4%), 7.8.8 billion (+35.1%), 1.0.9 billion (+30.6%), the revenue of strategic single-tasting wine ghost wine red altar increased sharply82.9%, product structure is further upgraded to high-end.Looking at the weight price, the three major series rose in volume and price. The sales of internal reference, alcoholic and Xiangquan wine (including other products) increased by 21 in 18 years.5%, 12.8%, 21.According to this calculation, the ton price can be increased by up to 14%, 20%, and 8%.In terms of different regions, the base camp in Central China has significant advantages, with revenue increasing by 39.1%; North China’s growth accelerated to 42.8%, East China, South China grew slightly slower. Product price increase + structure improvement drove up gross profit margin and increased expenses.Mainly benefiting from the price increase and product structure upgrade of Red Altar and Purple Altar, the company’s gross profit margin for 18 years reached 78.83% (+0.89pct), of which the gross margin of the internal reference and alcoholic series has been increased to 94.45% (+1.05pct), 81.45% (+2.1pct).Affected by the substantial increase in advertising fees and sales service fees, the company’s sales expenses were reset in 2017.15%, an increase of 5 per year.76pct; the management expense ratio (including research and development expenses) is 10.90%, falling by 2 every year.58 points. The resources focus on the core single product, the sinking of channels within the province + collaboration outside the province is worth looking forward to.The company clearly implements the three core brand strategies of internal reference, alcoholics and Xiangquan: stable price increase of internal reference, both price and price increase of alcoholics, incremental increase of 杭州桑拿 products from Xiangquan, resources focus on internal reference, red altar, and alcoholic wine inheritance.tilt.The company accelerated the sinking of channels and promoted terminal construction.The county-level market has basically achieved full coverage, and there is enough room for deep cultivation in the province. The subdivision and investment promotion outside the province has expanded to create a model market and gradually accelerate the company’s nationalization process. Financial Forecast and Investment Recommendations Consider the possibility of second-end high-end sales after the industry intensifies, we adjust the company’s 19-21 year earnings forecast to 0.97, 1.22, 1.46 (The original 19 and 20 years forecast was 1.15.1.43).With reference to a comparable company, the company was given a 19-year 26 times price-earnings 南宁桑拿 ratio, corresponding to a target price of 25.22 yuan, maintain BUY rating. Risks suggest that foreign wine competition is exacerbating risks, development outside the province is less than expected, and consumption upgrades gradually exceed expected risks